Fire Crux MageTier 2
at AMB Regionals
decks
3
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
4-5-3
overall winrate
45.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
45.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1324
· median 1341
· range 1033–1599
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1146
Q3 1391
1599
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 22.2% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.0% | -5.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 14.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.9% | +2.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.9% | +23.9 |
